【08.12.09 美 基督教科学箴言报】奥巴马将依赖中国
Generating jobs in the US will take more than bailouts of faltering firms, handouts to "green" industries, or stimulus spending. In its early days, the Obama administration will need to also look to China to fix an imbalanced trade relationship that not only helped create the US housing bubble but could delay an end to this recession.对于美国来说，為了创造新的就业岗位需要要做的不只是救助濒临倒闭的公司、为“绿色”工业投资，或者刺激经济的支出计划。最近，奥巴马政府将要与中国协商，解决中美不平衡的贸易关系问题，这样的关系不仅使美国出现地产泡沫，还延长了衰退持续的时间。
The giant Chinese export machine has fallen swiftly as US consumers have been forced to turn thrifty. One sign: Electricity generation in China, which had been rising 15 percent a year, fell 7 percent in November from a year earlier.
由于美国消费者被迫变得节俭起来，中国这个出口巨人的出口额迅速下降。一个标志是中国的发电量每年上涨15％，但是十一月份比去年下降了7％。
How China responds to its economic downturn will be watched carefully. Last year, it was the greatest contributor to global growth. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson visited Beijing last week to persuade it to avoid revving exports with more subsidies or by manipulating its currency to keep exports cheap. It's not clear if his gentle persuasion will work.
人们将密切关注中國會如何應對經濟危機。去年，中國為世界經濟的增長做出了最大的貢獻。上周美國財長保爾森訪問北京，勸說中國不要通過增加補貼來刺激出口，也不要通過操控匯率來降低出口產品的價格。目前尚不清楚這次溫和的勸說會不會起作用。
A follow-up trip to China by Barack Obama himself soon after he takes office may be in order.
奧巴馬在就職之后對中國的訪問也被提上了議事日程。
During recent good times, China churned out inexpensive products that Americans eagerly bought, helping to keep inflation low. But that flood of goods also destroyed entire US industries. And with $2 trillion in reserves, China recycled its export dollars back into US credit markets. It is now the largest holder of US Treasuries, beating out Japan in September.
在之前經濟狀況好的時候，中國向美國大量輸入便宜的產品，美國人也樂于購買，這樣的產品有助于把通脹維持在很低的水平。但是大量的進口產品也摧毀了整個美國工業。中國有兩萬億美元的外匯儲備，他們把出口換回的美元再投入美國的信貸市場。現在中國已經超過日本，成為持有美國國債最多的國家。
That flood of money helped to lower the price of US mortgages, pushing up home prices until the bubble burst in 2006-07. Even now, China's trade surplus with the US is at a record high – a sure signal that trade ties are still out of whack.
大量現金的流入還促使了美國抵押貸款成本的下降，房價的上升，直到2006－07年泡沫破裂。即是是現在，中國對美國的貿易順差還是處在歷史上的高位——這說明中美貿易關系還是處在非正常的水平。
Both the US and Europe want China to shift its economy from the old Japanese model of being export driven. Beijing needs to spur its people to spend more, save less, and create a consumer-driven economy. Otherwise, pressures will grow in the West for protection against Chinese exports and to open closed markets in China.
美國和歐盟都希望中國經濟能從日本的舊模式——出口導向模式——中轉變過來。中國政府需要刺激民眾多消費，少儲蓄，創造消費導向性經濟。否則，為了保護本國時常不被中國出口商品占領，也為了打開封閉的中國市場，西方將面臨很大的壓力。
Mr. Paulson was able to fend off such pressures from Congress. But Obama, who has often spoken out against free-trade pacts, has an economy to fix. He may sacrifice other aspects of US-China ties and threaten retaliation if China doesn't slow exports.
保爾森能夠這些來自國會的壓力。但是經常公開表示反對自由貿易的奧巴馬要對付嚴峻經濟形勢。他可能會為了出口問題而犧牲中美關系的其他方面，他還威脅如果中國不放慢出口，美國將采取報復行動。
The signs aren't good. China, which began to help the world by raising the value of its currency in 2005, has recently reversed course – a boost to its exports. And part of its economic stimulus includes an increase in tax rebates for exporters.
這對中國來說不是個好消息。中國自2005年以來一直在順應世界潮流使人民幣升值，但是最近為了促進出口，它卻在反其道而行之。中國在經濟刺激計劃也包括提高出口退稅率。
Beijing may be worried that economic growth may soon fall below a level that can sustain the need to create 1 million jobs a month for China's 1.3 billion people. Without much of a social safety net, the Chinese are unlikely to stop saving and spend. Per-capita gross domestic product is only $2,000. Protests in rural areas are rising, and the Communist Party fears for its rule.
中國政府可能會擔心經濟增長會很快放緩，進而無力為13億中國人每月創造100萬個就業崗位。由于沒有完備的社會保障體系，中國人不可能花錢而不儲蓄。中國的人均GDP只有2000美元。在農村地區抗議活動越來越多，共產黨在擔憂自己的統制。
Last month, China marked the 30th anniversary of its embrace of capitalism after decades of Mao Zedong's mistakes. It is now the world's fourth-largest economy and may equal that of the US by 2020. The time for it to shift from an export model is long overdue.
上個月中國紀念了改革開放30 周年（在毛泽东所犯错误的几十年后，资本主义又开始兴起）。現在中國是世界上第四大經濟體，到2020年經濟總量會與美國相同。中國早就應該結束出口導向型的經濟增長方式。
The world's free-trade system requires a China that contributes to it rather than abuses it. Obama will need to carry that message to Beijing as soon as he can.
世界的自由貿易體系要求中國應有的貢獻，而不是濫用這個體系。奧巴馬需要盡早向中國政府傳達這個信息。
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